Today marked one of the best purchase loan reports we’ve seen in years. Not only did we achieve 20% year-over-year growth despite tougher comparisons, but we also experienced an 8% increase in demand from the previous week.
If you’re looking for a series of positive reports that demonstrate real growth in existing home sales, today’s report is an excellent example. The key is to have consistent positive data week after week.
Consistent pattern emerges
Since late 2022, whenever mortgage rates fall below 6.64% and approach 6%, housing data tends to improve. This improvement manifests in a way that I find encouraging, specifically through positive week-to-week data.
If we can achieve 12 to 14 consecutive weeks of positive weekly data, we will establish a solid trend. So far in 2025, we have recorded 10 positive weekly purchase mortgage data prints since mortgage rates dropped below 6.64%. Here’s what the data looks like since rates fell below that key threshold:
- 10 positive week-to-week prints
- 7 negative week-to-week prints
- 17 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth
Annualized growth has been good this year, but the easy comparisons are coming to an end. Therefore, if we continue to see growth rates exceeding 20%, as we did this week, it will be more credible. Here’s what the year-to-date figures look like:
- 22 positive readings
- 18 negative readings
- 6 flat prints
- 43 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
- 30 straight weeks of double-digit growth year over year
Conclusion
The housing market isn’t booming by any means, but sales aren’t crashing either. What we do know is this: Inventory is back to somewhat normal levels.
As you can see in the chart below, data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has traditionally shown between 2 to 2.5 million active listings. The peak in 2025 was 1.55 million; in 2007, it was 4 million. As supply increases and price growth slows down, it’s a very positive outcome compared to the savagely unhealthy years of COVID-19.
Over time, wages increase, households form and life finds a way. We don’t need 50-year mortgages or portable mortgages; we just need time for the market to correct itself.
This is similar to the early 1980s, when affordability was worse, yet the market eventually adjusted and time helped to improve housing affordability. We are working from the lowest bar ever for sales. History has shown us that if rates fall, in time, like in previous cycles, demand rises.
Enjoy your Thanksgiving and remember that the Chart Daddy will always be here with the real data every week!
